Tuesday, 29 September 2015

Two Flawed Triumvirates Seek to Undermine Western Europe

Ultra Liberals Disguised as Capitalists

On one hand, we observe Obama peddling a socialist manifesto ignoring the reality of global sectarianism, energy imperialism and economic warfare while pretending to push a capitalist agenda to disguise his ultra-liberal policies. Obama's arguments that he supports capitalism and democracy (the rule of the majority) are reductio ad absurdum if one accepts that capitalism is engineered for inequality and fails to function if it is expected to operate alongside a belief that within a system that rewards risk, innovation and merit that all people can be equal and all opinions accommodated. On his flanks are Merkel in Germany and the South American liberation theologian in the Vatican.


These three are not overtly aligned but each with a significant power base and influence are pushing the same concepts - all of which are detrimental to Western interests and influence and the ultimate outcome of whose policies, if allowed to succeed, can only place the West at the mercy of more martial and aggressive regimes.

Weakness Masquerading as Strength

Human nature does not change quickly - these alleged students of the human condition wish us to take a path that will only result in our demotion globally to mere slaves of external events and concepts, rather than masters of our destiny. It puts us on a path of inevitable identity and cultural destruction.

Our opponents do not struggle with such issues. They hold a set of beliefs which they pursue relentlessly with a vigour that leaves no room for dissent. How can one be expected to accept a compromised position that weakens our ability to defend our beliefs in the face of such ideologues and fanaticism.

On the other hand Obama et al. - like all of their persuasion - seek to rule by the consensus of the lowest common denominator. This results in the usual liberal conundrum - perpetual inaction or at the very least confused, misguided and misdirected action - generally too late to influence events.

The "Might is Right" Misfits 

The opposing trio, led in theory by the bully boy Putin cosy in his arrangements with Hassan Rouhani (Iran) and Xi Jinping (China), are resolutely opposed to a progressive agenda and firmly united in their anti-American sentiment. They possess a clear set of focussed short term objectives that play to all the basic human emotions - nationalism, aggression and a clearly identifiable common enemy to unite against - in this case two - ISIS a form of radical Islam (I do not denote it as "the" form of radical Islam as Iran is the Sh'ia version of the ISIS Sunni form) and of course the USA.

The former are offering a loose set of vague promises of future peace, prosperity and universal brotherhood based on complete sacrifice by the most powerful and the most comfortable nations - financially and politically - all the while eroding the cultural identities and traditional values of those constituencies they allegedly represent.

The real power lies in the "Might is Right" alliance and it is that challenge that needs to be addressed by the next US administration, the Conservatives in the UK and the other realistic member states of the EU and Eastern Europe.

The Political Landscape in the West

Obama and the Democrats have 14 months left in office before a generation in the political wilderness. Merkel is riding a wave of nauseating self-applause regarding her disastrous refugee policies and in the spirit of classic Teutonic arrogance continues to use the very federal institutions that were created in the EU to protect against historical German aggression and bullying to push the German agenda and harass the weaker EU nations.

When the UK inevitably decides that enough is enough and leaves the EU it will create at last a second lever of power in Western Europe. The path is clear for the Conservatives to take the initiative on this long held wisdom as the only viable opposition - the Labour Party - is now led by the divisive Corbyn, a figure of contempt for many in his own party, a thinly disguised Marxist and terrorist apologist.

Papal Hand-Wringing Hides Classic Self-Interest

Pope Francis is simply a sideshow to fill a few minutes at the end of the news segments with his appeals that are attractive to the billions of Catholics in developing South America, Asia and Africa. The Catholic church having lost its foothold in its traditional power base after decades of financial and sexual abuse scandals must now do what it does best - pretend to champion the poor in order to maintain its relevance and more importantly its coffers.

Whether the Pope realises it or not, his rhetoric is only a tool to keep the institution relevant to its current flock of poverty stricken less educated members and contributors to whom religion is always a salve in their world with few comforts or allies.

Pathetic Justification of Obama's Foreign Policy Free-Fall

Yesterday Obama delivered a "why can't we all just get along" plea at the United Nations General Assembly in the spirit of the most self-deluded, self indulgent, unrealistic antics of the 60s "love and peace to all men, women and the gender neutral" movement. Obama imposed forty minutes of nonsensical rationalisation for inaction and justification, informed by hindsight, for the train wreck that is his administrations foreign policy outcomes.

He sees a world of "equals" albeit that some will be more "equal" than others. A world where a centrally based well armed unelected power - the United Nations - will "implement" policy at a global level despite its failure to do so on umpteen occasions in the past and without an awareness apparently of the veto that his main opponents possess at that forum.

Perpetual Flux & Cultural Abandon

He envisages the first world in a state of perpetual flux and cultural abandon - welcoming countless un-vetted refugees as "brothers and sisters" and granting every seemingly minority view a status equalling that of the majority. Regardless of the prevailing "mood" of the populace in our countries we are to be forced to allow every refugee, asylum seeker or economic migrant to choose our locale for their new start and to be pleased.

Many of these "travellers" are neither Syrian or from conflict zones. Those that are, have in the main, been created by US foreign policy disasters but the bill for these adventures is being picked up in general by Western Europe and in particular the populations of the United Kingdom, Germany and Sweden whose social structures and rampant political correctness are so attractive to these "travellers".

However, Obama has saddled his own nation with a similar version of unbridled immigrant access from Mexico and South America.

Breathtaking Paradoxes

He notes that "democracy", in his view, will and should take different forms in nations across the globe as it takes account of local "cultural" variations, religious preferences and regional ethnic themes. Failing it would seem to appreciate that his administration and he himself personally have done all they can to undermine these local variations in his own nation and in Western Europe.

Clearly, with a sideways glance at irony his speechwriters then ignored the juxtaposition of his comments regarding capitalism beside what amounted to a socialist policy document.

"The commitments we’ve made to the Sustainable Development Goals speak to this truth. I believe that capitalism has been the greatest creator of wealth and opportunity that the world has ever known. But from big cities to rural villages around the world, we also know that prosperity is still cruelly out of reach for too many. As His Holiness Pope Francis reminds us, we are stronger when we value the least among these, and see them as equal in dignity to ourselves and our sons and our daughters."

A Legacy of Failure & Betrayal

Obama stands atop a pile of the corpses of US veterans, coalition partners and local militia's whose past efforts he has squandered or current efforts left unsupported via his administrations stuttering hesitancy. Obama has presided over a foreign policy free-fall that has seen countless Middle Eastern and North African bombed-tortured-enslaved-persecuted-murdered-drowned civilians, led Europe to a state of cultural collapse in the face of unhindered economic migration, and seen factions across the globe create allegiances that are firmly polarised across religious and sectarian lines.

The lampoonish figure of this man who is responsible for these outcomes lecturing us like a Mandelaesque wannabe all the while waving a CND flag while allowing Iran access to the technologies for a nuclear weapon, clutching his pro-choice card and popping dandelions in the barrels of jihadi AK-47s is all the more aggravating as he has the audacity to look as smug as his co-conspirators while pontificating. Completely ignorant of his own legacy of failure.

Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. At best this is what Obama and Merkel and Francis are guilty of.


Yesterday Obama delivered a "why can't we all just get along" plea at the United Nations General Assembly in the spirit...
Posted by TMG Corporate Services on Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Misguided Faith in Failed Institutions

"It is this international order that has underwritten unparalleled advances in human liberty and prosperity. It is this collective endeavour that’s brought about diplomatic cooperation between the world’s major powers, and buttressed a global economy that has lifted more than a billion people from poverty. It is these international principles that helped constrain bigger countries from imposing our will on smaller ones, and advanced the emergence of democracy and development and individual liberty on every continent."

Obama spoke these words as fact - the test however is "time" and to put forward this thesis as fact bears no witness to the truth that since 1945 the "institutions" which he refers to are just seventy years old and are not mature enough or tested enough to offer, as he does, as the undisputed "global solution" going forward.

In fact on countless occasions the economic, social and military concepts of co-operation and mutual self interest and "self-evident truths" - a phrase he borrowed from a Constitution which he has shamelessly trampled on since his inauguration - have crumbled in even the most minor of crises.

We are globally more unequal now than we have been at any point in the past and all the credible studies show this is to continue and not reverse.

Add to that climate change, population growth, failures in disease control, economic uncertainty and global regional conflicts and one wonders how Obama can expect those who have in the previous centuries suffered and dragged themselves from these deprivations are simply going to mortgage their nations and families futures to those who have either abandoned or destroyed theirs in their own countries.

A Race To The Lowest Common Denominator

These are facts and not ultra-liberal fiction - Obama views "equality" not as the improvement of the conditions of those who are already comfortable but a race to the lowest common denominator where those in the first world move downwards to joined those in the second and third world as they rise upwards.

It is a dreamers concept where the hodge-podge of argument and rationalisation for such a policy can only be realistic in the mind of a egocentric with a mood of entitlement.

Misquoting History

"The people of our United Nations are not as different as they are told. They can be made to fear; they can be taught to hate—but they can also respond to hope. History is littered with the failure of false prophets and fallen empires who believed that might always makes right, and that will continue to be the case. You can count on that. But we are called upon to offer a different type of leadership—leadership strong enough to recognize that nations share common interests and people share a common humanity, and, yes, there are certain ideas and principles that are universal."

His reference to reasons for the failure of historical empires and the cherry picking of examples to support his argument makes assumption that while he is arguing against holding strong values and opinions that the number of empire's that fell because they stuck rigidly to their beliefs is matched by those that fell by allowing the utter dilution of the very principles that made them great - most notably the greatest of them all - the Roman Empire. Obama is no student of history.

But Obama was never one for digging deep to rationalise his opinions - he after all represents a minority view of sweeping generalisations but considers himself above reproach with respect to minority affairs. A worn out notion but one which still seven years on he pulls out of his single bag of tricks to push down any opposition as radical, racist, extreme or all three preferably - completely undermining the very "message" that he purports to be the on-high appointed courier for - namely tolerance.

The Erosion of US Prestige

He has failed to grasp and those willing nodders around him have also left unobserved the awkward fact that US influence and prestige has eroded globally over the last seven years to a point where former stalwart allies and client states have sought or are seeking options elsewhere.


In May 2014 we paraphrased coverage of Obama's whistle stop tour of the East that stated:

"America's allies are nervous. With Russia grabbing territory, China bullying its neighbours and Syria murdering its people, many are asking: where is Globocop? Under what circumstances will America act to deter troublemakers? What, ultimately, would America fight for?"

In the intervening seventeen months we have been given the answer: America - under its current leadership will fight for nothing.

Filling the Vacuum

Russia is still grabbing territory but has now been joined by China and Iran who have observed - in the spirit of Chamberlain - Obama's lack of firm intervention with respect to both the de-stabilisation of Eastern Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea by Russia.

Obama offers the "success" of economic sanctions as the justification of not wielding a stronger stick. The uncomfortable fact is that economic sanctions have led Iran to negotiate a pro-Iranian nuclear deal which the misguided President still believes is verifiable. And pushed Russia to further expansion as a direct result of US actions. Clearly Putin is protecting Assad who has vehemently opposed the construction of the Qatari gas pipeline which actions protects Russia as the key supplier of that resource to Western Europe and the foreign currency he so badly needs.

To quote Global Research: "A battle has raged over whether pipelines will go toward Europe from east to west, from Iran and Iraq to the Mediterranean coast of Syria, or take a more northbound route from Qatar and Saudi Arabia via Syria and Turkey. Having realized that the stalled Nabucco pipeline, and indeed the entire Southern Corridor, are backed up only by Azerbaijan’s reserves and can never equal Russian supplies to Europe or thwart the construction of the South Stream, the West is in a hurry to replace them with resources from the Persian Gulf. Syria ends up being a key link in this chain, and it leaned in favour of Iran and Russia; thus it was decided in the Western capitals that its regime needs to change. The fight for democracy is a false flag thrown out to cover up totally different aims."

In January 2015 in our post "Risks Ahead in the South China Sea" we noted that China continues to bully in the region around the Spratly and Paracel Islands.

Syria in the intervening period, along with Libya, is a failed state witness to destruction, genocide and a regional humanitarian crisis on a scale not seen since the 1940's. The outcome of Obama inaction is that the isolated Assad and the vacuum created by lack of Western support for a lesser evil in the face of ISIS has meant that Russia, China and Iran have moved to a position of unassailable control in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

Iran has been allowed to position its Sh'ia militias all across non-KRG Iraq and embolden its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon and Golan.

Putin's Vision of the Middle East

Putin has a vision of a wall of Iranian-dominated, Russia-friendly, anti-American states stretching from western Afghanistan through Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. And he’s well on his way to achieving it, thanks to the nuclear deal with Iran, US military hesitancy in the region and, now, an open alliance between Russia, China, Iran, Iraq’s Shia militias, Hezbollah and the forces of the Assad regime.

That wall would not only keep out the United States, it would isolate the Kurds and overshadow the last US clients in the region, including Israel who has already moved to improve relations with Moscow and receive assurances with respect to Moscow and Beijing's intentions as they commence a military buildup based around the port of Tartus and the Assad heartland of Damascus.

At the time (May 2014) the following was noted of Obama's questioning by the media:

"The answer to this question matters. Rogue states will behave more roguishly if they doubt America’s will to stop them. As a former head of Saudi intelligence recently said of Vladimir Putin’s land grab in Ukraine: "While the wolf is eating the sheep, there is no shepherd to come to the rescue." Small wonder that Barack Obama was asked, at every stop during his four-country swing through Asia, how exactly he plans to wield American power. How would the president respond if China sought to expand its maritime borders by force? How might he curb North Korea’s nuclear provocations? At every press conference he was also quizzed about Ukraine."

None of these legacy issues have been materially addressed by Obama and Co. in the intervening months and yesterdays speech suggests that will be the case until November 2016 - for that speech naively pleaded for reasonable actions from unreasonable people as the solution to these problems.

Indifference in the Audience

The sceptical faces of many at the Assembly was not just made up of the usual suspects but many formerly "standing ovation" members when any US President previously delivered a keynote address at a time of great import. The lack lustre applause at the appointed times throughout the cringe worthy oratory was also notable and telling.

Obama's own rationale and metrics can equally be applied to the foreign policy failures that he has created and presided over. In trying to cater to everybody he caters to nobody and undermines not emboldens the principles that he allegedly finds so appealing. His removal from office by the expiry of his abused mandate (making his own laws via the Supreme Court / signing Executive Orders on a weekly basis / failure to consult the "Voice of the People" - Congress) or impeachment cannot happen too quickly for the West. An abrogation of responsibility, in favour of unproven and previously failed strategies, on the scale of Obama's has not been witnessed before and hopefully will never be again.

Thursday, 24 September 2015

The Serious Implications of the Unopposed Russian Military Build-up in Syria


Western Inertia Enables Russian Geo-Political Gains

The geo-political gains that Russia are achieving in the Middle East due to EU / USA / NATO / UN inaction will not be reversed with diplomacy. Whether the US administration - current or pending - does or does not decide to change their policy on the region is irrelevant now because when or if they do it will likely be too late as it will risk direct military confrontation with the Russians already on the ground.

Summary Satellite‬ Imagery Analysis‬ of Russian‬ Military‬ ‪‎Buildup‬

The following observations were made at ‪‎Bassel‬ Al-Assad International Airport‬ Sept 4. to Sept 24. 2015 to include:
1. Additional helicopter‬ hard-stands;
2. Ground clearance taking place for future construction;
3. Construction of large new concrete surfaces and taxi ways; 
4. Initial positioning of mobile housing units;
5. Temporary tent‬ facilities;
6. A battalion's worth of ‪‎armoured‬ ‪‎vehicles‬ & tanks in temporary soft surface parking locations;
7. Several new helicopters deployed to location with rotors removed to facilitate air transportation;
8. Transport aircraft on runways with open nose cones for loading / unloading‪ troops‬ and ‪‎equipment‬;
9. 15 x new helicopters arrived to the airbase between Sept 4. & Sept 20. identified as Mil‬ Mi24‬ attack‬ helicopters‬;
10. Also new on Sept 20. - a large number of fighter aircraft sitting on parking bays parallel to the two runways at the airbase;
11. 4 x Sukhoi‬ ‪‎Su30MKI‬ multi-role fighter aircraft;
12. 12 x Sukhoi Su25‬ ground attack aircraft;
13. A further 12 x Sukhoi ‪‎Su24‬'s to the base on Sept 24.;
14. Additional construction ground clearance land scars and further deliveries are observed on satellite imagery today Sept 24.;


Russia & Assad -VS- The West, The Kurds & the Non Islamist Anti-Assad Militias

The Russians have moved to support Assad their long time ally. The West in the event of an intervention would do so to assist the Kurds against ISIS most likely but also to assist the anti-Assad non Radical Islamist militia's, the latter bringing them into direct conflict with the Russian forces.

Loss of Near Time Regional Opportunity & Increased Complexity

There will now be no NATO / US bases in Syria for the foreseeable future without direct conflict with or agreement from the Russians meaning "boots on the ground" from the West are unlikely to be within easy reach if direct military intervention is eventually agreed by the Western allies and their coalition partners.

Even in the event that the USA and the coalition partners limited their actions to supporting the Kurds against ISIS the planning and logistics would be exponentially more complex due to the existing Russian presence.

The Russians have stolen a march in the region right under the noses of the West - Russia has been allowed to take the initiative in the Middle East. Western Europe is weak - the compromising of Europe is Radical Islam's stepping stone to undermining the US. Europe needs the US to have strong leadership - the outcome in Europe will dictate the outcome in the US.

The Russian-Iranian-Chinese Triumvirate

In addition, the Iranians are controlling matters in Iraq (outside of the KRG) through their Shi'ite militia and on the ground QUDS forces. The Chinese too are making in-roads in the region driven by the rapid growth in oil and gas imports, Chinese trade with the Middle East has risen from around 20 billion USD a decade ago to an estimated 230 billion USD last year, with the trade volume expected to exceed 500 billion USD by 2020. The Russian-Iranian-Chinese triumvirate are leaving the West in a distance second place in the region.

Western Europe is Distracted

Meanwhile Western Europe's resources are being stretched and infrastructure overwhelmed with all the negative effects of the conflict in particular the refugee crisis and the associated internal security risks which we have discussed in our post Schengen: Compromising Europe's internal security by "democratic consent" previously and replied to criticism of our hypotheses in that post through Rebuttal to Comment on the LinkedIn Forum: Counter Terrorism & Geopolitical Security

Putin's Coup De Grâce

The Russians have spectacularly come out on top in this one - Putin must be a very happy man - and the US runs the risk of losing existing bases in Turkey due to poor relations with Erdogan over the ISIS fight and his governments hijacking of that alleged process to further persecute the Kurds, the only consistent and viable opposition to ISIS in the region since 2013 and additionally bomb the PKK and murder countless Kurd civilians in the process.

Ukraine too and the US influence therein is threatened and the Crimea and the Black Sea firmly under Russian control both outcomes threatening Western Europe's energy needs. It is easy to be tongue in cheek and suggest that Obama must be on the FSB payroll - they could hardly have done a better job themselves.

The Middle East - A Russian & Iranian Sphere of Influence

The conclusion - the continued unopposed build-up of Russian forces in Syria will mean that a direct Western intervention in the region is rapidly becoming an impossibility without a willingness to accept the risk of a direct military confrontation with Russia and the escalation of the conflict beyond all recognition - and not even the most hawkish US Republican would consider such an option as acceptable.

In the mid-term it would suggest that the Middle East is inexorably moving toward being an undisputed Russian & Iranian sphere of influence.  

Satellite Imagery Analysis of Russian Military Buildup at Bassel Al-Assad International Airport Sept 4. to Sept 24....
Posted by Graham Penrose on Thursday, September 24, 2015

1. Additional helicopter hard-stands:


2. Ground clearance taking place for future construction:


3. Construction of large new concrete surfaces and taxi ways:


4. Initial positioning of mobile housing units:


5. Temporary tent facilities:


6. A battalion's worth of armoured vehicles & tanks in temporary soft surface parking locations:


7. Several new helicopters deployed to location with rotors removed to facilitate air transportation:


8. Transport aircraft on runways with open nose cones for loading / unloading troops and equipment:


9. 15 x new helicopters arrived to the airbase between Sept 4. & Sept 20. identified as Mil Mi24 attack helicopters:







10. Also new on Sept 20. - a large number of fighter aircraft sitting on parking bays parallel to the two runways at the airbase:


11. 4 x Sukhoi Su30MKI multi-role fighter aircraft:




12. 12 x Sukhoi Su25 ground attack aircraft:




13. A further 12 x Sukhoi Su24's to the base on Sept 24.:


14. Additional construction ground clearance land scars and further deliveries are observed on satellite imagery today Sept 24.:


Acknowledgements:
STRATFOR - Full Video Analysis Here;
ALL SOURCE ANALYSIS;
GEONORTH - Imagery Coordination Center

Tuesday, 22 September 2015

Rebuttal to Comment on the LinkedIn Forum: Counter Terrorism & Geopolitical Security

Rebuttal to Comment made by NAME WITHHELD on the Counter Terrorism & Geopolitical Security Forum on LinkedIn regarding TMG Corporate Services' blog post Schengen: Compromising Europe's internal security by "democratic consent" Authors: Graham Penrose, Owner, TMG Corporate Services & Mr. Douglas Straun, Senior Risk Analyst & Defence Consultant  


Thank you Sir for your opinion and comments - please allow me to address them in the order in which they are made and to also rebut the conclusion which you have arrived at. 

Before doing so I would like to state that I find your commentary offensive - as it does not attempt to debate the issue but offers sweeping unsubstantiated generalisations, introduces emotion, concludes with an insult and in its entirety calls into question my integrity and that of my team: 

1. Your comment in quotes: "This is really an unqualified opinion based on simple assumptions. The results in my opinion are inaccurate." 

Our Response: In the first instance this is a blog post and as stated in the body of the post is one of a series of posts to follow - each subsequent post elaborating and extrapolating on the statements made in the current post and offering evidence to prove the veracity of what we have written. It is not nor does it purport to be an academic treatise drawing the premise from introduction through all stages of proof with references ending in a comprehensive set of findings and conclusions - that is because - as we clearly stated within the body of the post (which I am not sure that you actually read in full based on your comments):

How much more destructive, effective and demoralising will these new attacks be when executed by seasoned extremists, tested fighters and ideologues who are natives of the regions in question sent directly from the heart of the conflict in Syria & Iraq, who have likely seen family and friends die during the recent conflicts and who have been tutored personally by the extremist leadership of these organisations? As opposed to first or second generation Western European radical Islamists who learned their trade by distance education, short visits to training camps and likely had no personal tragedies to call upon to escalate and motivate their actions and extremism in the name of Radical Islam. A bold claim - the evidence for which TMG Corporate Services holds and will publish in a series of blog posts over the coming weeks and months including names, locations, former affiliations, current affiliations, current aliases and likely objectives.
2. Your comment in quotes: "Remember any conclusion depends on the validity of the evidence. In this case we are establishing if groups of terrorists are infiltrating into Europe hidden among refugees. The purpose of these terrorists is to establish sleeper networks and prepare for armed attacks. As there is no evidence to support this we have to evaluate if it is possible and as easy as it seems." 

Our Response: See (1) above and also please be aware that we are not in the business of conducting amateurish analysis and therefore I can assure you that this introductory post is a "scene setter" for the evidence, which we possess, to validate the assertions that we are making. This evidence is not Google search based desk jockey academic theory but field based and first hand experience combined with accounts from eye witnesses and parties to the planning of this process which we discuss in our post.

3. Your comment in quotes: "As there is no factual data we have to judge whether these assumption are reasonable. The first consideration is will the genuine refugees protect the identity of any terrorists or foreign fighter. Remember these refugees are not unknown individuals. They are made up of families and friends from the same region. In most cases all running from ISIS. The majority will be in non-combatant professions or academics. Will they jeopardise there safety for a terrorist?" 

Our Response: We cannot allow you to make the allegations that you have made about our lack of evidence and then not challenge you on this statement especially "The majority will be in non-combatant professions or academics." On what basis do you come to this conclusion? 

It is our experience that you are incorrect. With respect to the rest of the content of this section of your argument I would offer you the following links relating to a recent high profile incident involving an alleged legitimate "refugee" to refute your belief that those travelling with extremists are all aware of each others previous history and affiliations in-country - please see https://www.rt.com/news/316124-refugee-camerawoman-kicked-militant/ and http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/200921#.VgIGn2Ttmko and http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/20092015 . 

The assertions that you make in this section of your comment - even in the absence of the example in the links above - would leave even a credulous individual having difficulty accepting that extremists travelling in the company of genuine refugees would be as easily identifiable as you claim. 

It is akin to claiming that a bank clerk from North London would instantly recognise an Islamic extremist from South London while travelling on the same tube in the underground. Really? - you feel that the identity of every radicalised Islamist is known by all and sundry in their company? 

Additionally, a cursory glance at the make up of the refugee groups in Macedonia, Croatia and Hungary - not the images you view on TV which concentrate on women and young children - but the views we have seen on the ground show large groups of unaccompanied men travelling in hoodies and face masks and not family units as you assert. This is in part evidenced in the videos we embedded within our post.  

4. Your comment in quotes: "Next- when refugees enter a country they undergo a structured examination to asses credibility. The primary investigation includes interview’s by academic experts, country ands language analysts, security and religious experts mainly from the claimants country of origin. In effect they undergo a security assessment, which under current policies a person with any discrepancies can be detained indefinitely. If accepted they are effectively on parole with weekly visits and are monitored. So can a foreign fighter claim to be Syrian pass these interviews?" 

Our Response: This Sir is entirely inaccurate - even a novice observer of recent events is aware that the Italians ceased six months ago to register rescued migrants from boating disasters in the Mediterranean and rather - because of a lack of assistance from their EU colleagues - unilaterally decides to allow the rescued migrants to choose their reception country and register at time of entry with the authorities there. 

At least there was a modicum of traceability surrounding that process. However - migrants and refugees are currently passing unregistered and unidentified from Serbia and Croatia in to the EU and onwards. 

Are you seriously suggesting that any sleeper / infiltrator is then going to proceed directly to a registration point and submit themselves to the processes you describe. If they even existed, which they do not in the form you describe, the backlog would mean lengthy delays in processing. 

And are the migrants being held in secure camps on arrival in the EU in the country of their choice - no they are not Sir. Therefore I submit to you that this section of your argument is nonsensical notwithstanding the fact that within the current chaos any sleeper / infiltrator - even the most inexperienced - would have little difficulty avoiding detection and moving through Europe at will and undetected or even identified. 

5. Your comment in quotes: "The next assumption is there is a terrorist reception infrastructure? Also safe houses with secure communications, arms and equipment waiting for these terrorists. ????? The more we drill down we tend to see this article is guesswork resulting in scaremongering." 

Our Response: Guesswork? - your entire comment is a series of fictional statements. Yes, there is a "terrorist reception infrastructure" to coin your phrase and it does provide accommodation, logistical support, planning capabilities and a supply of weaponry. 

With respect to the secure communications - why don't you google some of these keywords below and educate yourself regarding how advanced those comms capabilities are and have been for quite some time now and which have evolved significantly - in terms of eavesdropping counter measures and engineered backdoor detection - since the revelations by traitorous Snowden and Assange. Google the following:  

1. Al-Fajr Technical Committee 
2. Al-Fajr Android App For Secure Communication
3. Al-Fajr Announces New Website 
4. Al-Qaeda's Embrace Of Encryption Technology 
5. The Impact Of Edward Snowden on Terrorist Comms Tech
6. The Cyber & Jihad Lab - Presented by MEMRI
7. Inspire Asrar Instructions
8. How Al-Qaeda Uses Encryption Post-Snowden (Part 1)
9. How Al-Qaeda Uses Encryption Post-Snowden (Part 2)

To conclude - the "scaremongering" that you accuse us of is clearly based on an ill thought out set of assumptions and yours are the words of a naive and inexperienced individual regarding these matters. 

Your veneer thin assessment of our post and your knowledge of current jihadi affairs and strategy is the type of misguided and uninformed mindset that will allow these people to succeed in their objectives if there were not others more qualified than you taking the required actions.  

I will leave you with a quote from Charles Bukowski - “The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.” 

Schengen: Compromising Europe's internal security by "democratic consent"


Co-Author: Mr. Douglas Straun, Senior Risk Analyst & Defence Consultant

FRANCE - The Southern European states are now in total collapse and helpless to stop the daily flood of "refugees" - estimates say that there are 635,000 "refugees" waiting along the Turkish coast to cross to Greece. 
Ignorance is Bliss - Self Delusion is the order of the day
23,700 arrived in Austria this week of which 78 % were male and an estimated 83% of those males were under the age of 30 - the series of videos on this page shows the skewed media reporting of this phenomenon:

Video #1: Shows the aggression of the male "refugees" at Röszke; 

Video #2: Shows Hungarian SF firing water-cannon & tear gas at "refugees" as if to say that it was an unprovoked act against women & children as reported by the misleading media segments that lack the proper context or frame of reference; 
Video #3: Shows the predominantly fit young male demographic of the overwhelming majority of these "refugees";

There are likely many ISIS members / sympathisers hiding in plain sight here - their actions in these videos show they are fit and aggressive enough to be able to direct their energies against the enemy in their own nation - a passion to enter Europe not matched by a passion to liberate their own country from tyranny or assist their women and children to leave with them. 

The Need for a Unified Refugee Policy & Rigour in Registration & Deportation

Proper screening of these "refugees" is essential - lax German & Swedish policies are encouraging these activities and are planting the seeds of future mayhem in Europe. 


The deserving and legitimate refugees need to be protected, cared for, housed, integrated and healed - those who do not fall into that category must be immediately deported to put an end to this socially engineered migration encouraged by a rampant "one size fits all" attitude to the phenomenon being peddled by the liberal and naive in Western Europe. 


A Unified Policy Response is Unlikely

There is no possibility - based on the inaction of the EU, NATO, UN and the USA in Libya, Syria and Iraq over the last twenty four months - of any cohesive and unified policy emerging. The nations on the front line of the problem cannot cope and the hand wringing, chin trembling nations who were the root cause of the current conflagrations from North West Africa to the borders of India stand idly by and watch while their open borders ideal goes to hell under the feet of countless economic migrants, welfare opportunists, some political asylum seekers and some genuine refugees. 

Building a Sleeper Army by Social Media - Phase 1 (2013 / 2014) 

In our blog post Precision Guided Message - Radical Islam, Social Media, and Building a Sleeper “Army” of the 23rd July 2014 we addressed Phase 1 of the ISIS sleeper cell radicalisation and recruitment strategy: 

"With a reported 2500 Western fighters (Grose, 2014), IS’s efforts would appear to be a success, but how influential was the use of social media and what are they doing differently? Additionally, are “boots on the ground” the only indicator of success. We do not believe so. A more threatening and undermining effect of this strategy is the construction of a sleeper network and the manipulation of international cells whom IS never intend to draw to the actual conflict zones.

To solely focus on the immediate effect in terms of IS fighting numbers in the field and to encourage this social media activity so that Western intelligence agencies can locate activists or anticipate operations in the short term is one dimensional and ignores the more worrying mid to long term effects and possible strategic intentions of IS."

Additionally we commented that: 

"One of the contributing factors in the forward momentum of the Islamic State (IS) [formerly and variously the Islamic State of Iraq & Syria (ISIS) or the Islamic State of Iraq & al-Sham; and the Islamic State of Iraq & the Levant (ISIL)] is the rapid and regimented dissemination of the organization’s message."

At the time of writing of that blog post there were as stated above an estimated 2500 foreign fighters active for ISIS in the Syrian conflict - by October 2014 (a mere four months later) this had risen to an estimated 16,500.  



Similarly since then the incidence of lone wolf attacks by radicalised Islamists in Europe has grown exponentially since 2014: the Charlie Hebdo massacre, the brutal murder of Drummer Lee Rigby (2nd Battalion, Royal Regiment of Fusiliers), the ‎Thalys Arras Train Incident, The Porte de Vincennes siege, the attack on the Jewish Museum of Belgium, the Krudttønden Cultural Centre attack in Copenhagen it is clear that the long distance radicalisation tactics had been effective.     

In conclusion we had stated:

"This analysis considers IS’s basic use of two social media tools through June/July 2014. When al-Qaeda used online tools for recruitment, a thorough tactical analysis with in-depth assessments about the organization’s success was not possible until almost a decade after recruitment began (Gerwehr & Daly, 2005). It is likely that in-depth research about IS’s success or failure to use social media may take a comparable amount of time. However, since IS has succeeded in recruiting more Westerners than any other group to date, it is imperative to begin the process now. We recommend analysis of accounts which are providing the highest level of audience segment targeting toward Western audiences, including analyzing names chosen for such accounts and their use of idioms and slogans, with particular attention to evidence of positive Western response and IS’s ability to capitalize on success, to predict threats and develop countermeasures. Other avenues for analysis are currently being developed and results and findings will take the form of further posts on our various publishing platforms."

Building a Sleeper Army by Covert Migration - Phase 2 (2015) 

Meanwhile, as part of the current migration crisis Islamic State, Al Nusra Front and Al-Qaeda terrorists are gleefully and freely executing the building of a large scale sleeper network throughout Western Europe.

How much more destructive, effective and demoralising will these new attacks be when executed by seasoned extremists, tested fighters and ideologues who are natives of the regions in question sent directly from the heart of the conflict in Syria & Iraq, who have likely seen family and friends die during the recent conflicts and who have been tutored personally by the extremist leadership of these organisations? As opposed to first or second generation Western European radical Islamists who learned their trade by distance education, short visits to training camps and likely had no personal tragedies to call upon to escalate and motivate their actions and extremism in the name of Radical Islam.  

A bold claim - the evidence for which TMG Corporate Services holds and will publish in a series of blog posts over the coming weeks and months including names, locations, former affiliations, current affiliations, current aliases and likely objectives.

A phenomenon borne out by The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the work of Harleen Gambhir and her team who conducted simulation exercises on February 27 and March 16, 2015 to discover the diplomatic and military opportunities and pitfalls likely to arise in the coming months of the counter-ISIS fight. 

Several developments that ISW predicted during the simulation have already occurred. Identifying these scenarios and opportunities in advance they believe can enable the US and its allies to make better-informed decisions in the long-term.

ISIS - Three Simultaneous Well Orchestrated Campaigns

They have also focussed on how ISIS is executing their global strategy and they categorise this ISIS strategy as having three simultaneous campaigns:

1. Defending its existing territory in Syria & Iraq;   
2. Working with regional affiliates to "foster disorder in the near abroad" - the Middle East and North Africa; and 
3. Launching terror campaigns focussed on the "far abroad" to include the West, Australia and South East Asia;  

The current infiltration of Western Europe under the guise of "refugee" status is an element of the "far abroad" element of the three pointed strategy being pursued by the group.

Understanding the Inaction by the EU  

All the while Brussels and its legion of liberal misguided bureaucrats stubbornly cling to the Schengen concept that is woefully inadequate and for which they never legislated would result in current events and who are now unwilling to accept responsibility for this, let alone amend Schengen for fear of compromising the precious Euro.

We are witnessing the invasion of Europe and the compromising of its internal security by "democratic consent". Federal Europe and its bureaucratic structures, liberal mindset, lack of martial spirit and slavish adherence to political correctness is the greatest weapon that the Islamic State possess and it is exploiting that weakness to maximum effect at present. 

Sunday, 13 September 2015

Terrorist Hamas uses extreme violence but not to further the Palestinian cause or to defend Palestinians

I am vehemently anti-Hamas although not exclusively because they arm themselves and use violence. Every society past and present has used violence to defend itself and/or to protect its interests and will continue to do so. Some were/are "just" causes others were/are not. 

Violence is & always was an integral element of human nature

The type and scale of violence and the "standards" with respect to armed conflict that used to apply - in theory (a gentleman's code if you will / Geneva Convention most recently) - have long since fell by the wayside. 

Violence is unsavoury in all its forms but Hamas' use of violence and the methods of its equivalents (Radical Islamists) has passed all acceptable thresholds from as far back as the 1970's. 

Hamas Hijacking: This time it's the Palestinian Cause not an Airplane

Hamas claim that they use force to protect their "people" against oppression, occupation, injustice and persecution. This is simply not the case. This disconnect results in tacit and in some cases outright support in the West for the Palestinian cause "represented" by Hamas. However, Hamas has in fact hijacked the Palestinian cause to further an entirely different set of strategic goals. Many in the West who lend this support misunderstand or are taken in by the false propaganda that Hamas peddles to disguise the true objectives of its use of extreme violence and aggression. 

Western Audiences Rationalising the Unthinkable

People understand others based on their own experiences. When we approach a topic like suicide bombing which is alien to all right thinking people they ask: "Wow...what would it take to make me strap a bomb to my chest to blow up a bunch of innocent people in a neighbouring country?" 

Some would say that this type of barbarous activity could only be justified because of provocation of the most extreme kind that resulted in the death of family and friends, or intense humiliation, or pure desperation. The fact is no justification exists that could legitimise anyone committing such a dreadful act. 

The Role of Veneer Thin Analysis & Biased Media Reportage 

The Western media then showcases the actions of a large, modern, well-funded army (IDF) apparently crushing an underdog that is fighting with stones and light weapons. They publish pictures of bloodied children in Gaza, bombed out houses and dead civilians to generate the impression that these actions which they describe as atrocities or state sponsored terror fuel the response from Hamas. 

Extremism & Frames of Reference

Suicide bombing is extreme, but in the context of how the media report it some people see a kind of twisted rationale behind it. However, the public's thinking short circuits when it comes to groups like Boko Haram and ISIS, which all view as barbarians. 

Every sane person draws a blank when asking themselves "What circumstances would it take for me to behead all the men in a neighbouring town, enslave the women, and rape them until they have my children?" They have no answer - they lack anything resembling a perspective that could comprehend this let alone justify it or support it. 

The Israelis as victims of Hamas, the Christians and Muslims of the Northern States of Nigeria as victims of Boko Haram and the Kurds as victims of ISIS and Turkish State Terror all understand the perspective they are dealing with. 

Hamas, Boko Haram and ISIS all use violence as a form of religious devotion justified by their twisted interpretation of a book that was written 1400 years ago and which they interpret to suit their agenda and to develop their charters. 

The key difference between Hamas and Boko Haram / ISIS is not its ideology, it is merely that Hamas' military tends to lose more regularly and spectacularly and use that "underdog" being bullied by an aggressor (Israel) as the key ingredient in their propaganda and funding strategies.  

They share only one thing - they are murderous extremists who cannot be negotiated with and are entrenched in views which they will not compromise for the sake of peace because they feel their cause is divine. 

The West labels it all "extremism" without fully realising that in these societies for these people it is normality and indeed seen as a religious duty. 

The Actual Strategic Objectives of Hamas

Hamas' goal with their use of violence is not peace nor is it the achievement of a two state solution and it most certainly is not the defence of the Palestinian people. 

The Hamas objective is the explicit destruction of the sovereign State of Israel, the elimination of all Jews - man, woman and child, and the purification of a land currently held by non-believing infidels - not just Jews but Christians, Hindu's, Buddhists, minorities - all in fact who are not Radical Islamists. This is not conjecture. The following excerpts are from the Hamas founding charter:

On Hamas belief system: 
Allah is its goal, the Prophet its model, the Qur’an its Constitution, Jihad its path and death for the case of Allah its most sublime belief.

On killing Jews (pre-amble):
Muslims will fight the Jews and kill them; until the Jews hide behind rocks and trees, which will cry: O Muslim! there is a Jew hiding behind me, come on and kill him!

On peace (article 13):
Peace initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement.

On Israel (article 28)
Israel, by virtue of its being Jewish and of having a Jewish population, defies Islam and the Muslims.

Read in full the published document: The Charter of the Hamas

Fostering A Culture of Violence and Hate 

From cradle to grave, Hamas and its predecessors have attempted to ingrain in their people a belief that the highest form of religious sacrifice is to commit violence and to give ones life for their "truths" as interpreted by them to suit their sinister agenda. Those who make that sacrifice are honoured in this world and the afterlife - by the governemnt. Streets are named after martyrs: PA names Ramallah street after Hamas terror mastermind 

Money is paid to their families as incentives rather than compensation: Documents: Saudis Paid Bombers' FamiliesPalestinians get Saddam funds

The government has and continues to support this sacrifice by their citizens including their children who they encourage to become Shahid (witness or martyr): Arafat - "Dead Palestinian Children are the Greatest Message to the World"



Children are taught their role in the struggle: MEMRI: Hamas TV Children's Show Encourages Killing of Jews. Palestinian children aspire to death as martyrs:



And some children play a more active role: Israel Says Children Enlist Children as Suicide Bombers - here a 14 year old suicide bomber:


Hamas possesses a entirely different mentality than Boko Haram or ISIS. Hamas many misinformed Westerners believe use violence to resist the Israeli "occupation" without realising that Hamas refers to the mere existence of Jews in Israel as an "occupation". 

Bodies of dead and injured civilians are released and picked up globally by a liberal anti-Israeli media and attract audiences who do not understand that Hamas encourages and highlights these tragedies as a key weapon in their black propaganda efforts. 

An entire Hamas industry exists to stage powerful propaganda videos to elicit sympathy from the broader world. 

What really happens in Palestinian Media: Pallywood

This is an interesting "60 Minutes" segment about how the Palestinians use their own camera crews and actors to basically set up war scenes in their favour. Observers call it Pallywood:



Global sympathy elicited from pictures and videos of dead children are Hamas' primary defence against the technologically stronger IDF. Sympathy is their primary source of funding from nations and individuals abroad; whether it be from those that are sympathetic to the goal of destroying Israel or those who are sympathetic to Palestinian suffering.

And the real Palestinians are suffering. Through the deprivation of their basic rights, through the stifling of their freedom to live differently, and through the constant state of war they find themselves in from both within and without - fostered by their "protectors" - Hamas.  

In summary, I do not disapprove of the use of violence to protect rights and preserve justice and oppose tyranny. But the Palestinians have a government that uses violence for far different reasons and not as a last resort - and rather than protecting free speech they stifle it, rather than uphold the rights of women to vote they suppress it, rather than encouraging new ideas to flourish they crush them, and instead of defending the Palestinian people they place them in harms way - for their own sake, for their twisted ideologies and for their personal enrichment.

The Noble (and Uber Wealthy) Man of the People

Yasser Arafat was the original head of the PLO, the mastermind behind the suicide bombing tactic, and the leader of the Palestinian PR strategy. Hamas has since taken control of Gaza, but they mention their close relationship with the PLO in their charter. 

Arafat was estimated by Forbes to have a net worth of US$300m at the time of his death, and a peak net worth of over US$1b; almost all of which was international aid and donations. His wife was well-known for her extravagant lifestyle in France, where she rented entire floors of luxury hotels and spent millions on high fashion: Why was €1m a month sent to Arafat's wife?

Sixty Seconds to Show You What Hamas Does With Foreign Aid for its People


נא לשתף-שכולם ידעו את האמת !!!
Posted by Alex Knobel on Tuesday, July 29, 2014


Acknowledgements:

First published Anonymously on Quora here.